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 Area Forecast  Discussion - Data Provided by the National Weather Service Tampa Bay







Forecast Discussion for TBW NWS Office







000
FXUS62 KTBW 281121
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
721 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue to move across the area this morning ahead of the cold
front. This front will exit the region by early this afternoon
with northwest winds behind it ushering in cooler drier air to
end the week. High pressure will settle over the area Friday and
then shift east out into the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend, but
continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula. Fair dry
weather is expected through the weekend with comfortable
temperatures and humidity levels. Early next week the high
pressure ridge will begin to drift south as the next cold front
associated with a storm system moving across the eastern U.S.
approaches the region. Winds will shift to southeast to south
bringing increasing humidity with a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms arriving by midweek as the cold front moves into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

MVFR CIGs are in place this morning as a cold front moves
southward across central FL. Areas of scattered showers
accompanying the frontal boundary are also moving through the
region, which may lead to brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions at
times so TEMPOs have been added to most terminals at the start of
the period. Flight conditions quickly improve later this morning
into the afternoon hours as the cold front exits to the southeast
and drier air builds in with VFR conditions then prevailing
through the remainder of the period. Breezy conditions also
develop behind the front today with northwest winds at 15 to 20
knots and higher gusts developing but winds will shift to north
and diminish to around 10 knots by this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A cold front will sweep across the waters this morning preceded by
showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind the boundary robust
northwest to north winds will setup and continue through tonight.
Winds and seas will subside Friday and remain below headline
criteria through the weekend. Early next week southeast to south
winds will begin to increase as the next cold front approaches
from the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A cold front will move across the region this morning preceded by
showers and a few thunderstorms. Breezy northwest winds behind the
front will usher in cooler drier air and lead to high dispersion
values this afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds today, but are expected to fall below 35 percent
for several hours both Friday and Saturday afternoons. However, winds
on Friday and Saturday will diminish and ERC values will remain low
so no Red Flag conditions are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  57  77  57 /  70   0   0   0
FMY  80  58  80  58 /  50   0   0   0
GIF  79  54  77  54 /  70   0   0   0
SRQ  78  57  80  57 /  60   0   0   0
BKV  76  48  78  48 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  74  61  75  62 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion

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