385
FXUS62 KTBW 090713
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
313 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
U/L pattern begins with a rex block over the inter-mountain west
and west central Canada. The rex block will break down today and
Friday with a split flow pattern developing along the west coast
of the U.S., with a cut-off U/L low retrograding over the desert
southwest, and the main northern stream flow out of Canada diving
southeast into a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River
Valley. Southern stream flow will undercut the west coast cut-off
low and stretch west/east across the southern tier of the U.S.
merging with the northern stream over the southeast U.S. A series
of U/L disturbances will ride through the northern stream, with
one pushing across the southeast U.S. on Tuesday which will bring
a significant chance of rain across west central and southwest
Florida. This disturbance will rotate away from the region on
Wednesday...with the subtropical ridge south of the area gradually
building back north across the Florida peninsula late in the
week. A significant large scale pattern change will take place
across the CONUS as the split flow pattern entering the west coast
of the U.S. breaks down.

High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the forecast area
today with continued very warm temperatures and dry conditions.
The surface ridge axis will be sinking slowly south of the region
which will allow for increasing onshore boundary layer flow. This
will push the sea breeze boundary inland during the afternoon
hours which will hold max temps along the coastal counties to the
upper 80s/lower 90s...with the interior climbing into the mid 90s.
A frontal boundary will sink slowly south along the
Georgia/Florida border on Friday which will tighten the gradient
creating a bit stronger onshore flow. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms will develop with the best chance for rain across
the nature coast. High temperatures on Friday will be similar to
Thursday. The frontal boundary will continue to sink south Friday
night across the remainder of the forecast area with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across much of the area.

Weak high pressure build over the Florida peninsula over the
weekend in the wake of the front over the weekend. The most
noticeable change will be the drier air advecting across the
region with dew points away from the coast dropping in the mid to
upper 50s in many areas. Temperatures will also be a few degrees
cooler...but will it will still be quite warm over the interior
and southwest Florida.

L/L moisture will be on the increase early next week as the U/L
disturbance previously mentioned approaches the southeast U.S. A
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the forecast area on Monday. The associated frontal boundary will
move over north and central Florida on Tuesday with showers and
thunderstorms likely...and a chance of thunderstorms south. The
front will stall across the central Florida peninsula and will
gradually dissipate. However, residual moisture combined with
daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze boundary will create
a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals,
with SCT040-050 and SCT250 developing at most terminals. Less in
the way of the cumulus/lower cloud deck at terminals near the
coast during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
High pressure will hold over the waters today and Friday.
Slight increase in the gradient on Friday may allow for brief
SCEC conditions Friday evening as an onshore may develop, but not
enough to headline at this time. Winds will veer north and
northeast over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the
north. An approaching frontal boundary early next week will cause
winds to shift to the south and southwest, with potential for
headline conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night as the frontal
boundary sinks south across the northern waters. The gradient will
weaken late Wednesday and Wednesday night as weak high pressure
builds back over the area as the frontal boundary gradually
dissipates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
No red flag conditions are anticipated. However, dew points over
the interior will drop into the 30 to 35 percent range this
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s. Winds are
expected to remain less than 15 mph. Similar conditions on Friday
afternoon with minimum relative humidity values around 35 percent
over portions of the interior with highs again in the mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  89  77 /   0   0  30  30
FMY  92  76  91  76 /   0   0   0  20
GIF  97  74  94  74 /   0   0  10  30
SRQ  88  76  89  75 /   0   0  10  30
BKV  93  71  91  69 /   0   0  40  30
SPG  87  79  87  78 /   0   0  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion